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Since the interest in the betting exchanges grows, so more and more people want to make money from horse racing by laying horses to get rid of. But what is the best strategy? On the face of it, one might think that simply betting that the outsider will forfeit is really a quick way to make fast money. In reality, the very best horse to bet against is the race favourite.
Betting the outsider at 20/1 will lose will be fine to begin with, and doubtless you will soon create a winning run of profits. However, sooner rather than later that 33/1 shot with ‘absolutely no chance’ will come home in-front, and you may well have laid him at a price of 52.00 (for example) on Betfair. BOOM! There goes all of your hard-earned winnings, and much more!
Generally a horse will be the favourite because it has got the weight from the market’s money behind it, which forces the price down. Simple economics. You will see a point however, where the horse’s price is lacking compared to it’s actual chance of winning. Beyond this ‘true’ price is in which the layers will quickly make a profit.
And then we proceed with this particular strategy, and we proceed to lay every favourite, right? Wrong.
Horse racing favourites are often priced too low. This is how bookmakers make their profit for generations. But they’re not priced too low each time – sometimes a favourite is easily the most likely horse to win a race for very good reason.
If we took the simplified approach of laying every favourite, after a while betting about the exchanges we would remain round the break even point, because the exchange finance industry is a very efficient barometer of probability. However, after paying commission on our winnings, we’d watch our account slowly draining away like water down a plug-hole. Not good.
Just how do we know which favourites are true favourites, and that are weak or vulnerable?
One way would be to analyse the strengths of the horse’s form. It won’t surprise you to learn more favourites win whether they have fewer question marks against them. This is not brain surgery, but making the effort to separate strong contenders from weak favourites will give you the ‘edge’ to make that all-important profit.
Below is really a list of form criteria you are able to affect the marketplace leader in any given race:
1. Horse and Class: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to seriously compete within the class of today’s race.
2. Horse and Track: Must have proven ability on either today’s track or one concentrating on the same characteristics.
3. Horse and Recent Form: Analysis of general form over the last few weeks.
4. Horse and Race Distance: Should have shown the power or obvious potential to run competitively over today’s distance.
5. Horse and Draw: Highlight any obvious disadvantage if applicable.
6. Horse on and on: Should have shown an obvious capability to handle today’s ground.
7. Trainer and Track: Trainer must have a minimum of a 10% strike rate on today’s track.
8. Trainer and Recent Record: Trainer should have had a minimum of two placed or one winning horse in the last Fourteen days.
9. Jockey and Track: Jockey should have a minimum of a 10% strike rate on today’s track.
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Rating a favourite as ‘weak’ or else is entirely subjective, but you may determine (for instance) that a horse with 3 or more question marks or negatives over their form would be considered a horse worth opposing.
As always the question of price will come into the equation. A horse with several boxes left to ‘tick’ in the list above may be a favourite in a weak race at 5/1. This may be a fair price, and you may not need to get involved with laying him to get rid of.
However, whenever a 2yo filly steps hoof to the track for the first time, and is offered by odds-on due to the fact she is ridden by Frankie Dettori with respect to the Godolphin training empire, then you can want to consider taking her on.
To sum up: race favourites in many cases are a profitable supply of potential Lay Bets, because they are often ‘over-bet’ and offered by prices too low when compared with their actual chance of winning. Take the time to analyse key facets of the horse’s form and judge whether they really are a ‘strong’ or ‘weak’ favourite. If you decide they’re vulnerable to defeat and the price is short enough, then you’ve identified a great lay bet.
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