Lottery Result Phil

How To Find Those Elusive Football Draw Games

The draw game – hard to find them isn’t it? Eight of these are key to winning the British or Australian treble chance , but maybe you just want to find two or three for a specialised fixed odds bet, maybe in an Australian, German or Italian league. Typically, on a league weekend in the British football season, there will be 9 scoring football draws on the 49 match coupon. Of these, many will have been predictable using a good football draw predictor. No-score football draws add about draws 4-5 per week.

How can we pick them?

In the British league season, most teams play near to ‘form’ – that is, at a fairly consistent (and predictable} standard – but Cup matches are more of a lottery when ‘giant killing’ happens fairly frequently. These competitions are best avoided if you are serious about winning the football pools. To start, we only bet when the odds are optimal, and that means only on the league games. Betting on cup matches is for fun only, and expect to lose money over the long term. In fact, we don’t bet when ‘form’ is likely to be compromised – e.g. on New Year’s Day when the players have been celebrating.

Using a solid football draw prediction system, you will be able to keep track of form and eliminate those matches which are certain home wins – there could be typically 22 home wins on a coupon, many of which will have been easy to predict. As to away wins, these are trickier to forecast, and there will be, typically, 13-14 away wins on the coupon..

Supposing we can predict 90% of those home wins – that’s almost twenty matches, plus 50% of the away wins – another 7 matches. So, out of the coupon as a whole, with a reliable forecasting system we can expect to predict 26 matches (homes and aways). That leaves 23 matches, from which we have to find 8 football draws. That has made the challenge a lot easier!

Now, with a good plan or perm, which combines maybe 17 or 18 forecasts – some plans even give a coverage of 24 matches, then you can see that the odds of getting 8 football draws in a line are hugely better. Sure, using a plan means that you trade perfection to achieve greater coverage (after all there are 451 million ways of selecting 8 football draws from 49 matches). You probably will not hit the jackpot, but you will have more frequent wins of lower value, and should be able to move into profit.

So, you can see that an efficient football draw prediction system is essential.

Use statistics selectively

My view is that the first few weeks of the season are when we don’t get a reliable picture of form across a league division, and it takes some weeks for the pattern to emerge. Some experts will look at long term patterns and suggest that some teams are home win experts, some have a good (or a poor) away record. That can be useful in the final analysis, but I don’t factor such things in when looking for a football draw game. So, how far back should we look? Certainly not into last season – I work with less than half a dozen matches history (league games only).

Rate the teams

Then, you need to have a consistent way of rating a team’s performance – and that needs to take into account the strength of the opposition. This leaves you with a list of teams and performance ratings.

Now you need to look at the forthcoming matches and compare the teams’ ratings. Adjust for home advantage, and make any other adjustments you feel are appropriate (new player or manager, injury to a key player?). Then, organise the list in order by likely match outcome. At one end of the list will be most probable home wins. At the other end will be the most probable away wins. In the middle will be the juice – where we find the elusive football draw block.

Find the juice

Then, you take the middle chunk of matches and, depending on your budget, decide how many you will cover using your perm or plan. You could reasonably expect to win in those weeks when there are 11-14 football draws in the results.

If we can find 60% of the draws when there are 13 or 14 in the results, then we will have 8 – 9 draws. That’s when a good staking plan comes in, to maximise your chances of getting your football draws in one line.

These are a few, but not all of the elements necessary to become a regular winner.

It’s important to see that this is a percentage approach, and all you are seeking to do is get the odds on your side and find most of those elusive football draws. A few wins a season should put you into profit, and as always, the devil is in the detail!

About the Author

Phil has been a football pools winner since 1985, when he first developed his system. Now, he travels and writes a lot, and has made his system available in a full colour ebook, with templates. There is a load of pools related information on his website footballpoolswizard and details of great plans and perms too.